以下为行政长官董建华今日（十一月二日）出席博鳌亚洲论坛2003年年会全体大会的致辞全文（中译本）：
主席先生、各位领导人、各位先生、女士：
今届博鳌论坛以「亚洲寻求共赢：合作促进发展」为主题，是十分合时的重要课题，我很高兴有机会参与其盛。
我高兴有两个原因。第一、时机现已成熟，让亚洲实现合作促进发展的理想。我深信唯有携手合作，才能确保各地人民永享繁荣。第二、香港体现合作促进发展的精神，我想跟大家分享一些近期的态势发展，对大家的讨论或有启发。
亚洲人携手合作共创繁荣的愿景并非全新。一九五五年亚非多国领袖云集印尼万隆，当代巨人中国总理周恩来、印尼总统苏卡诺、印度总理尼赫鲁首次聚首，共商如何合力促进国家发展以造福国民。博鳌论坛可说延续了这股合作精神。
万隆一众领袖有合作宏愿，可惜当年政治、社会、经济条件尚未成熟。亚洲各国因冷战而分化，又各有内忧，急于处理二次大战后殖民地时期终结的种种挑战。因此大家纵有意合作发展，却是心有余而力不足。
时移势易。早几十年亚洲各地产品大同小异，多为农产品和简单工业制品，通商效益不大。国内也未兴旺至有余力可向外投资。直至近几十年，特别是过去二十年，各地发展蓬勃，新兴市场冒起。经济多元发展，商品和服务互通有无，区内通商大有可为。资金跨境来往频繁，投资本区成为重要增长工具。
和平稳定令各国关系日益密切，贸易投资在太平盛世中得以发展。和平稳定令亚洲进步繁荣。亚太经合组织、东盟并中日韩的10+3组合都是亚洲经济体群策群力的例子，希望能先成立亚洲自由贸易区、进而为亚太自由贸易区，最终目标当为全球自由贸易。我想重申新加坡总理吴作栋先生所言，不与其他贸易伙伴合作，亚洲也无法繁盛起来。我们的工作，必须全球参与。
香港目睹并参与这些进程，尤感切身，因为香港的经济模式正是建基于对世界各地开放贸易和投资，建基于为亚洲内外提供世界级商务平台以创富利民。
中央政府对香港大力襄助，最近签立的《更紧密经贸关系安排》[文章来源：中国大学在线]，让多种港产货品由明年一月一日起零关税进入内地市场，另18种服务业可先于世贸所订中国市场开放时间，提早进入内地，让香港公司得以早先鞭。
另一项为香港商务平台增值的条件，是与发展速度领先全球的珠江三角洲整合。多项跨界基建、公路、铁路、大桥，都将令香港与珠三角的联系倍加紧密。
但其实比基建更重要的，是我们与广东省达成的协议，进一步合力发展港、澳、珠三角区组成的经济区。
这个经济区会相当庞大。目前，香港与珠三角人口迫近6 000万，本地生产总值约2,500亿美元。十年后，相信区内合计本地生产总值将达5,000亿美元。如把这个经济区当作一个国家，十年后大抵会是全球第十一、十二大经济体。
这个星期较早时，香港与上海这两个全国经济龙头协定加强合作，八大领域包括运输、航空港、港口航运、物流、投资、商贸、金融服务等，逐一研究如何互补优势，互惠互利。
我想告诉各位，我们与珠三角的协议，还有与长江三角洲上海的协议，都是合作求共赢的例子。我们都把香港的竞争优势，如世界级商贸金融服务、有利营商的低税率环境、一流基建、廉洁高效的政府，与伙伴的竞争优势并合，相得益彰，实力倍增。
因此，香港前途无可限量。我也想借这机会，跟大家谈谈香港作为国际金融中心所特别关注的另一课题，就是「经济安全」问题。
「国家安全」泛指保护国家安全和领土完整，免受外国武力侵扰，一般用于军事防卫。不过，近年随资本帐目开放和全球金融市场日益紧密连系，新兴经济体往往易受国际资金流窜冲击而波动不稳。资金流窜，加上体系积弱、企业管治欠佳和宏观经济管理失当，都会危害这些经济体的货币金融体系稳定，亚洲金融危机就是一例。原来的「国家安全」理念，因此延伸至保护国家或经济体的货币金融体系安全完整。一如保护国家安全，政府务须采取适当措施保护货币金融体系安全，防范外来冲击，特别是投机热钱对本土货币和其他金融市场的攻击，以免危及整体稳定。
在一九九七、九八年间的亚洲金融危机中，亚洲各地的金融体系备受威胁。先是某些亚洲国家出现的货币危机，继而恶化成危机，最终更导致金融体系几乎崩溃。引发金融危机的因素不少：经济过热、宏观经济政策失当、体系积弱、企业管治欠佳等。利用高杠杆比率投机炒卖的机构和对基金狙击亚洲货币等金融市场，加剧了市场的震荡和波动。
对基金由于得到主要国际金融机构提供高杠杆比率，可在拟狙击的市场持有极大仓盘，因而有能力左右市场方向。巨额而集中的持仓量可以扭曲市场运作，不让投资者认清真正价格。换句话说，对基金可以*控价格，并随意牵引市场参与者往有利于他们的方向走，波幅可能远远偏离了市场的实际支持。这样不仅令市场急剧波动，更会造成巨大压力，危及体系稳定，这就是我们所说的「大象入小塘」，庞大的投机者可以摧毁其他小投资者问题。
亚洲金融危机爆发后，多个国家和地方都采取了防御措施，香港当然也不例外。一九九八年八月，香港股票市场推行新规定不久，马来西亚即实施外管制，并大致沿用至今。泰国和印尼推行新法例，仿效新加坡模式限制非居民借贷本土货币，防范投机者建立巨额空仓狙击其货币。这些国家又严格规定须申报资料，追查跨境资金流向。经各地政府努力，亚洲的企业管治和体系已日见进步。
简而言之，要确保经济安全，各地必须加强体系和企业管治，避免经济过热造成泡沫经济。此外，更必须建立国际金融架构用以监管对基金，或至少令这些基金的运作更见透明。
随区内经济复苏，加上有其他更迫切要务须予处理，亚洲金融危机似渐为人遗忘。亚洲各地的中央务须继续加强合作，而成立亚洲债券基金正是其中一环。不过，根据亚洲金融危机的，更重要的是建立新的国际金融架构，这对奉行自由浮动汇率制度的国家尤其重要。新架构有助保护本土不受国际资金流窜冲击而致不稳。
各位，香港是中国一个城市，也是国际城市，更是亚洲国际都会。香港一流的运输系统让我们在三、四小时内就可直达区内各主要都会及商贸中心。我在此诚邀各位，不论是经常来港的还是从未来过的，都来探访我们，开拓商机，寻求共赢。多谢各位。
Following is the speech by the Chief Executive, Mr Tung Chee Hwa, at the plenary session of the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2003 "Asia Searching for Win-Win: Development through Cooperation" on November 2, 2003:
Mr Chairman, excellencies, friends, ladies and gentlemen:
I'm very glad to have this opportunity to participate in this Forum with its theme, "Asia Searching for Win-Win Development Through Co-operation." It is a very timely and important theme.
I am glad for two reasons: first ause the conditions are now ripe for us to realise the vision of Asia developing through co-operation. I believe it is only through such co-operation that we will ensure the continued prosperity of all our people. Second, I like to think that in Hong Kong, we embody the spirit of development through co-operation, and I would like to share with you some recent events that you might find useful in your discussions.
The vision of the peoples of Asia co-operating with each other for their mutual benefit and prosperity is not new. In 1955, in Bandung, the leaders of Asia and Africa, including the at giants of the time, Premier Zhou Enlai, President Sukarno and Prime Minister Nehru, met for the first time to discuss ways to work together to bring pross and prosperity to their peoples. I like to think that the meetings at Boao are in a way a continuation of this process.
The leaders at Bandung had a vision of co-operation, but the political, social and economic conditions of the time were not quite right. Asia was divided by the Cold War and the countries of the region were preoccupied with their own problems, the challenges of the post-colonial period, and recovering from the ravages of World War II. Therefore, it has not been possible to develop, to work together, to reach out to each other as much as we have wanted to.
But conditions have clearly changed. In earlier decades the economies of the region produced similar goods - agricultural and primary commodities and simple manufactured goods - such that it was not particularly worthwhile for the different economies to trade with each other. Neither did these economic activities generate enough surplus capital to invest in other countries. But in the last few decades, particularly in the last two, a at spurt of development has transformed the economies of the region. Our economies have diversified, and we now produce an entire range of goods and services that makes regional trade very viable. We are generating capital flows that make regional investment an important tool for growth.
Peace and stability have brought the countries of the region closer together and have made possible trade and investment, pross and prosperity. We have seen concerted efforts to link our regional economies together, as embodied in APEC, in ASEAN plus China, Japan and Korea - the so-called 10+3 process that we all hope will lead first to an Asian Free Trade Area, then an Asian Pacific Free Trade Area, and ultimately to a global Free Trade Area. I would like to echo what Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong has just said - that Asia will not be prosperous if we exclude the other trading partners. We must work together on a global basis.
In Hong Kong we have watched and participated in these developments with at interest. Our economic model is based on being open to trade and investment flows from all over the world, and on providing a world-class business platform that those within the region and beyond may use and benefit from.
In these efforts, we have been atly helped by our Central Government. We recently concluded an economic partnership aement, CEPA, under which a range of goods manufactured in Hong Kong will enjoy duty free access to the Mainland beginning next January 1. Eighteen of our service industries will be able to enter the Mainland market ahead of China's market opening timetable under the WTO. This will give Hong Kong companies an immense advantage.
Also enhancing Hong Kong's value as a business platform is the growing integration of the Pearl River Delta, which as you know is one of the world's fastest growing regions. Several major cross-boundary infrastructure projects - roads, railways, bridges - will strengthen Hong Kong's links with the Delta.
But perhaps more important than the infrastructure is the aement we have reached with the authorities in Guangdong to work more closely together as a regional economy that embraces Hong Kong, Macau and the Pearl River Delta.
This will be a huge regional economy. Today, Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta have a population of just under 60 million people with a GDP of about US$250 billion. In 10 years time, we believe the combined GDP of the region will be about US$500 billion. If this region were a country, within a decade it would probably rank as the 11th or 12th largest economy in the world.
Earlier this week, Hong Kong and Shanghai, two of China's economically most important cities, aed to build closer links and have identified eight areas of co-operation including transport, airports and ports, logistics, investment, trade and financial services. In each of these areas we will look for ways to leverage our respective strengths for the benefit of both parties.
Let me put it to you that our aements with the Pearl River Delta, and with Shanghai and the Yangtze River Delta, are models for the sort of co-operation that leads to win- win development. In each of these cases, we have pooled Hong Kong's competitive strengths - our world-class business and financial services, our business-friendly low tax environment, our excellent infrastructure and our clean and efficient government - with the competitive strengths of our partners to create a situation in which the whole is ater than the sum of the parts.
So we are moving forward in Hong Kong. I also want to take this opportunity to talk about another subject to which as a financial centre we are particularly sensitive. I want to share these thoughts with you. The subject is economic security.
"national security" usually refers to the protection of the safety and territorial integrity of a state from foreign forces. This concept is normally used in the context of military defence. However, in recent years, ause of the liberalisation of capital accounts and increased global linkages of financial markets, emerging market economies are increasingly exposed to international capital flows that can be very volatile and destabilising at times. These volatile capital flows, when complicated by a weak banking system, poor corporate governance and incorrect macroeconomic management, can threaten the stability of monetary and financial systems, as evidenced by the Asian Financial Crisis. As a result, the "national security" concept has been extended to cover the security and integrity of the monetary or financial system of a state or economy. And just as with national security, a government is expected to take appropriate steps to protect its monetary and financial systems against external shocks, notably speculative attacks on the currency and other financial markets that may undermine systemic stability.
The security of financial systems in Asia came under serious threat during the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997-98. What started as a currency crisis in some economies developed into banking crises that led to a near collapse of financial systems in the worst-hit economies. Many causes contributed to the crisis, including economic overheating, unsound macroeconomic policies, weakness in banking systems and poor corporate governance. However, the shocks and volatility experienced at the time were exacerbated by speculative attacks by highly leveraged institutions or hedge funds in the currency and other financial markets.
The hedge funds can influence market dynamics through the sheer size of their positions, achieved through significant leverage provided by the major international financial firms, relative to the size of the markets under attack. Large and concentrated positions can distort the normal functioning of the markets and overwhelm the price discovery process. In other words, the hedge funds could force prices and sentiment to move in a direction that favours them, even though the magnitude of such moves may be far out of line with underlying fundamentals. This could result not only in extreme volatility in the markets but also in unbearable pressure that threatens the very stability of the system. This is what we call the "elephant in the pond" problem.
Following the eruption of the Asian Financial Crisis, several economies took steps in self-defence. Of course, we did that in Hong Kong. Shortly after Hong Kong launched its e stock market operation in August 1998, Malaysia introduced exchange control measures, which have largely remained in force up to now. Thailand and Indonesia have introduced legislation that follows the Singapore model in restricting non-residents' access to domestic currency borrowings in order to prevent speculators from building up massive short positions against their currencies. Reporting requirements for banks have been tightened in these countries to keep better track of cross-border capital flows. And as a result of their own efforts, we see corporate governance and the banking systems of the Asian economies improving.
In short, to have economic security, each economy must strengthen its banking system and corporate governance, and avoid economic overheating that creates a bubble economy. But there is also a clear need to build a new international financial architecture to supervise, monitor, or at least to make the operations of hedge funds transparent.
However, as economies in the region recover and other more pressing issues arise that must be dealt with, the Asian Financial Crisis is a fading memory. It is important that Asian central bankers continue to enhance their co-operation. This is happening already as manifested by the setting up of the Asian Bond Fund. But based on our experience in the Asian Financial Crisis, it is even more important that we build up a new international financial architecture. This is particularly essential for those who advocate a floating exchange rate system. The presence of such an architecture will help protect our economies from volatile international capital flows which are potentially destablising in nature.
Ladies and gentlemen, Hong Kong is a Chinese city. Hong Kong is an international city. Hong Kong is the world city of Asia. Our excellent transportation links ensure that we are no more than three or four hours away from all the major capitals and business centres in the region. Therefore I take this opportunity to extend an invitation to all of you, those who come to Hong Kong from time to time, and those who have not been to Hong Kong, to come and visit us, to explore the opportunities for win-win development. Thank you very much.
