Chinanews, Beijing, Jan. 31 – China Construction Bank Research Center recently released a report saying that in 2007, Chinese economy will maintain a high growth rate with low inflation, with economic growth rate keeping at around 10%. In 2007, the central bank might raise interest rate once or twice with 0.27 percentage points each time. Meanwhile, Renminbi appreciation will reach 5.5% for the whole year, some 2 percentage points more than last year, the China Securities Journal reported.

 

In 2007, the central bank will continue to use the means of bank deposit reserve ratio and central bank bills to balance liquidity. The central bank might raise the bank deposit reserve ratio three or four times in 2007, with the bank deposit reserve ratio raised by a margin of 0.5 percentage point each time, to reach 11%. Meanwhile, the total number of central bank bills might reach 4.5 trillion yuan. In 2007, Renminbi exchange rate might fluctuate in an even larger range, making it more flexible. It is expected that Renminbi’s exchange rate to US dollar will fall between 7.81 and 7.35 yuan.

 

If macroeconomic measures are effectively implemented, the report predicts, the investment growth rate will slightly fall in 2007 and total investment in fixed assets will increase by 22%, two percentage points lower than last year. Total retail sales of consumer goods will grow by 14.5% in 2007, or 0.8 percentage point higher than last year. Although CPI faces greater pressure, inflation will still be kept at a moderate rate of about 2.5%. In 2007, China’s export trade volume will grow by 23%, 4 percentage points lower than last year, while its import trade volume will grow by 25%, or 5 percentage points higher than last year. In spite of this, trade surplus will continue to grow. It is expected that trade surplus for the whole year might reach over 200 billion US dollars.