Chinanews, Beijing, Feb. 1 – China Business News recently conducted a questionnaire survey among some economists, asking about their prediction about the Chinese economic situation in 2007. Sixty-six economists from home and abroad responded to the questionnaire offering their views about important domestic and international economic issues.

 

According to the investigation result, most economists think that Chinese economic growth rate will slightly fall in 2007. Some 62.5% of economists predict that Chinese GDP will grow by around 9-10%. Only 5% of the economists say that GDP growth rate will fall below 9%.

 

Their opinions are based mainly on the fact that the growth rates of both investment and export, the two main driving forces of the Chinese economy, will fall as expected.

 

Despite this, 32.5% of the economists say that the GDP growth rate will exceed 10% in 2007.

 

At the same time, most economists agree that trade surplus and foreign exchange reserves will remain high in 2007, and Renminbi appreciation will continue.

 

In predicting China’s monetary policies, 84.61% of the economists say that the central bank will continue to adjust its bank deposit reserve ratio. 46.15% of them say that the ratio will be raised by less than 1%, while 38.46% of the economists say it will exceed 1%.

 

Over 70% of the economists pick up the marketization of interest rates as the most urgent task for China’s financial reform.

 

The survey shows that 50% of the economists predict that in 2007, the central bank will continue to raise the interest rate, 44.74% of them say the central bank will keep the current interest rate unchanged, while 5.26% say the interest rate will fall.

 

In addition, 52.63% of the economists say Chinese stock markets will fluctuate in a large range in 2007, and 47.37% of them say the stock markets will hit a new high this year. Only 2.63% of the economists predict that stock markets will fall below the level of 2006.