摘要:
英国政府首席科学顾问戴维·金9月23日提出警告说,随着全球气候进一步变暖,飓风的危害程度和发生频率也将会呈日益加大之势。
The violence and frequency of hurricanes will increase with global warming, the Government's chief scientific adviser warned today.
英国政府首席科学顾问戴维·金9月23日提出警告说,随着全球气候进一步变暖,飓风的危害程度和发生频率也将会呈日益加大之势。
据英国《每日邮报(http://www.xmyuanda.com》 9月23日报道,前不久“卡特里娜”飓风刚刚重创了美国新奥尔良市及其周边地区,接踵而至的丽塔飓风正使该国墨西哥湾沿岸以及炼油业的心脏地带面临严峻威胁。戴维·金恰在此时接受了英国广播公司第4电台的采访时,提出了全球气候变暖会导致更多的飓风出现的警告。他同时还提醒公众,目前出现的这一系列威力巨大的飓风有可能一直持续到下个月。
金说:“毫无疑问,飓风强度的大小取决于海洋表面温度的高低。从我们今年8月在墨西哥湾地区观测到的情况来看,那里海面的温度较之往年要高出2至3摄氏度。从飓风的产生这一角度来看,这种情况的出现或许意味着我们正在面临一个极为严峻的局面,如此说来,前面那几场强飓风的到来就并不令人感到意外了。从现在起直到本月底乃至10月份,大西洋中部地区的海面温度可能会一直比正常情况高出大约1摄氏度,这也意味着此种强度的飓风会在这段时间里不断出现。现在没有谁会争辩说较高的海面温度不会造成强度更高的飓风。如果我们把眼光往前看的话,地球的温度在持续升高,于是我们便可以预计飓风的强度以及衡量这一强度的下限也将会不断上升。”
另外,金还补充说:“如果在未来50年的时间里,地球的平均温度再升高1摄氏度的话,那么我们可以十分肯定的认为,诸如此类的自然现象还将会更多的出现。”
The violence and frequency of hurricanes will increase with global warming, the Government's chief scientific adviser warned today.
Sir David King issued his warning as Hurricane Rita menaced America's Gulf Coast and the heart of the US oil-refining industry, hard on the heels of Hurricane Katrina, which devastated the city of New Orleans and surrounding areas.
Interviewed on BBC Radio 4's Today programme, Sir David also cautioned that the current spate of high-powered hurricanes is likely to continue into next month.
Sir David said: "There is no question that intensity of hurricanes is dependent on surface sea temperature.
"What we have seen in the Gulf of Mexico this year in August, surface sea temperatures were two to three degrees centigrade warmer than usual.
"This means this is potentially an extreme event in terms of hurricane generation, so in that sense it is no surprise that we are seeing these intense hurricanes.
"Across the central Atlantic sea temperatures will probably continue to be about one degree centigrade above normal right through to the end of this month, into October, which means that we can also anticipate that hurricanes will continue over that period at this intensity.
"The point is that there is nobody arguing that (higher) sea temperature does not create more intense hurricanes. And as we then move forward in time, and the planet continues to warm up, we have therefore got to anticipate ... that hurricane intensity, the baseline intensity of hurricanes will increase."
Sir David added: "If in 50 years' time the average temperatures are a further one degree centigrade up, the conclusion is inescapable that there should be more of this kind of activity."



